La bancabilità delle start-up

Nei primi anni della loro vita, le start-up sono tipicamente prive di indebitamento, non essendo in grado di generare flussi di cassa positivi o di concedere garanzie adeguate. Il capitale raccolto risulta pertanto riferibile al patrimonio netto (equity), che rappresenta il serbatoio di cassa che consente alle start-up di sopravvivere sino a quando maturano un surplus di liquidità. Quando una start-up raggiunge la sua maturità e il break-even finanziario, grazie anche alla finanza ponte di intermediari specializzati (venture capital, private equity, finanza agevolata), può iniziare a indebitarsi. Ciò rappresenta un importante traguardo, riservato alle scale-up che sopravvivono alla selezione darwiniana, oltrepassando la «valle della morte» (che comporta l’azzeramento della liquidità e del patrimonio netto).

LA VALUTAZIONE DELLE START UP

Le start up innovative rappresentano società neocostituite ad alto potenziale di crescita, che solitamente assorbono molta liquidità nei primi anni di vita, per finanziare lo sviluppo, a fronte di attività raramente utilizzabili come garanzia. Ciò le rende poco appetibili per gli intermediari bancari tradizionali, di norma rimpiazzati nella fase di seed e scale up da altri intermediari specializzati come i fondi di venture capital o private equity, che diversificano il loro portafoglio, fondando le proprie strategie su un exit pluriennale con forti incrementi di valore attesi dagli investimenti che sopravvivono ad una selezione darwiniana. La valutazione di una start up è intrinsecamente problematica, a causa della novità del business e del settore (che ne incorpora i connotati di innovatività, che non consentono di trarre utili indicazioni di natura storica), nonché per la natura della struttura aziendale e del modello di business. Gli scenari della valutazione cambiano molto nelle diverse fasi di vita di una start up, durante le quali variano, anche sensibilmente, i ricavi, i costi, il circolante, gli investimenti, i flussi di cassa e l’indebitamento verso soci e, in prospettiva, terzi finanziatori.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348936918_La_valutazione_delle_start_up

DO CROWDFUNDED PLATFORMS IMPROVE SUSTAINABILITY AND OUTREACH IN MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS?

Economic and financial profitability is a prerequisite for social, and environmental sustainability. Several risk factors endanger the Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) and their precarious equilibrium, dwarfing their outreach potential towards the financially excluded. The research question analyses the impact of crowdfunding platforms on the MFIs economic and financial equilibrium, to detect if and how sustainability and outreach may be improved. This hypothesis is tested with an empirical simulation and then interpreted with innovative network theory modeling. It is shown that networked platforms and related innovations as crowdfunding, reduce transaction costs, and operational risk. Another source of savings is given by reduced cost of capital: whereas it is difficult and expensive for MFIs to raise capital (equity or debt), crowdfunding (especially if reward- or donation- based) makes it easier and cheaper. Reward, donation, or equity crowdfunding, with its flexible approach and declinations, may represent
a viable mix of complementary solutions that soften core microfinance criticalities, providing subsidized capital and cost-cutting technology. Digital platforms act as pivoting nodes within the microfinance networked ecosystem, intermediating value co-creation, and sharing among cooperative stakeholders. Digital savings improve financial inclusion, fostering microfinance outreach. The model is applicable to group lending practices that become digitized and may be extended to either individual borrowing or to peer-to-peer lending where direct connections eliminate the MFI intermediation.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348479089_DO_CROWDFUNDED_PLATFORMS_IMPROVE_SUSTAINABILITY_AND_OUTREACH_IN_MICROFINANCE_INSTITUTIONS

THE INTERACTION OF BIG DATA, FLEXIBLE OPTIONS, AND NETWORKED ECOSYSTEMS IN AUGMENTED BUSINESS PLANNING

Traditional business planning follows a managerial top-down approach where forecasts are conceived within the firm and occasionally compared with market returns. The increasing availability of timely big data, sometimes fueled by the Internet of Things (IoT), allows receiving continuous feedbacks that can be conveniently used to refresh assumptions and forecasts, using a complementary bottom-up approach. Forecasting accuracy can be substantially improved by incorporating timely empirical evidence, with consequent mitigation of both information asymmetries and the risk of facing unexpected events. Network theory may constitute a further interpretation tool, considering the interaction of nodes represented by IoT and big data, mastering digital platforms, and physical stakeholders. Artificial intelligence, database interoperability, and data-validating blockchains are consistent with the networking interpretation of the interaction of physical and virtual nodes. Flexible real options represent a natural by-product of big data consideration in forecasting, representing an added value that improves Discounted Cash Flow metrics. The comprehensive interaction of big data within networked ecosystems eventually brings to Augmented Business Planning.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346442792_THE_INTERACTION_OF_BIG_DATA_FLEXIBLE_OPTIONS_AND_NETWORKED_ECOSYSTEMS_IN_AUGMENTED_BUSINESS_PLANNING

DCF METRICS AND THE COST OF CAPITAL: ESG DRIVERS AND SUSTAINABILITY PATTERNS

Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a method of valuing security, project, firm, or asset using the time value of money. All future cash flows are estimated and discounted by using the cost of capital to express their present values. Cash flows in the numerator of the formula need to keep an intrinsic consistency with the cost of capital in the denominator that incorporates risk factors. This well-known framework reflects the forecast business model of the firm that incorporates trendy issues like Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) drivers, and other sustainability patterns, ranging from corporate social responsibility (CSR) concerns to circular economy issues. The digital dimension also contributes to reshaping the DCF metrics, easing the circulation of big data that soften information asymmetries. Intangible-driven scalability potential reflects in higher economic and financial marginality, proxied by the EBITDA or other parameters, and fostered by B2B2C-enabling digital platforms. The impact of social responsibility and ESG compliance on the creation of market value for firms and investors is still questioned. Rating issues for ESG-compliant funds remain controversial. Further research is so needed to analyze this interdisciplinary issue.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344953641_DCF_METRICS_AND_THE_COST_OF_CAPITAL_ESG_DRIVERS_AND_SUSTAINABILITY_PATTERNS

THE SCALABLE IMPACT OF INTANGIBLE INVESTMENTS ON THE EBITDA-DRIVEN MARKET VALUATION

Marketing or technology-related intangibles foster economic scalability. This increased return on operating profit derives from a higher EBITDA, a key economic and financial margin widely used in firm appraisal that is reflected in the ratio EBITDA / Sales (a sort of “monetary” Return on Sales). Intangibles have a scalable impact on the EBITD(A) if they contribute to boost monetary revenues and/or to decrease monetary OPEX. EBITDA represents the real engine behind value creation and economic-financial growth. EBITDA has an impact on most profitability ratios and market multipliers, ranging from ROIC, ROE, EVA, MVA, the economic profit to Enterprise Value/EBITDA, Price/Book Value, Price/Earnings, etc. This study analyses these links starting from a comprehensive accounting perspective, critically examining the causal relationship according to which intangible investments increase the EBITDA and have a positive impact on both profitability ratios and market multipliers.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344376735_THE_SCALABLE_IMPACT_OF_INTANGIBLE_INVESTMENTS_ON_THE_EBITDA-DRIVEN_MARKET_VALUATION

MICROFINTECH: OUTREACHING FINANCIAL INCLUSION WITH COST-CUTTING INNOVATION

Microfinance is a renowned albeit controversial solution for giving financial access to the unbanked, even if micro-transactions increase costs, limiting outreach potential. Economic and financial sustainability of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) is a prerequisite for widening a potentially unlimited clients’ base. Automation decreases costs, expanding the outreach potential and improving transparency and efficiency. Technological solutions range from branchless mobile banking to geo-localization of customers, digital/social networking for group lending, blockchain validation, big data, and artificial intelligence, up to “MicroFinTech” – FinTech applications adapted to microfinance. Financial inclusion has been identified as an enabler for 7 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Cross pollination of financial intermediaries is catalysed by digital platforms that act as a bridging node among multilayer networks where traditional banks, FinTechs, and MFIs interact.

IL MODELLO 231 NELLE SOCIETÀ DI CALCIO PROFESSIONISTICHE E IL REATO DI FRODE IN COMPETIZIONI SPORTIVE

Le previsioni del d.lgs. 231/2001 si applicano, a tutti gli effetti, anche alle società calcistiche, le quali, in virtù delle disposizioni endo-federali, sono obbligate ad adottare modelli di gestione e controllo (impostati sulle linee guida dettate dal Consiglio Federale FIGC) nonché a nominare di un Organismo di vigilanza. I suddetti modelli − improntati altresì al rispetto dei principi di lealtà, probità e correttezza – dovranno in ogni caso integrare le previsioni del d.lgs. 231/2001 con le norme di diritto sportivo, per prevenire non solo i reati presupposto − elencati nel citato decreto − ma anche gli illeciti sportivi espressamente previsti nelle norme di giustizia sportiva.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341900825_IL_MODELLO_231_NELLE_SOCIETA_DI_CALCIO_PROFESSIONISTICHE_E_IL_REATO_DI_FRODE_IN_COMPETIZIONI_SPORTIVE

THE VALUATION OF E-HEALTH AND TELEMEDICINE STARTUPS

E-Health is a healthcare practice supported by electronic processes and communication that covers everything related to medicine and computers. Complementary telemedicine is the distribution of healthrelated services and information via electronic information and telecommunication technologies. This industry is relatively young and rapidly evolving. It is so unsurprising that many innovative firms are still in their infancy, belonging to a startup phase. Cutting-edge telemedicine applications aim to achieve optimal patient care and outcomes. They offer indispensable tools for home healthcare, remote patient monitoring, and disease management. A patientcentric vision orientates the strategies and the corporate governance patterns of the composite stakeholders. The analysis of the innovative business model of an e-Health startup is a pre-requisite for its appraisal and embeds scalability options. The evaluation depends on the prioritizing identification of the crucial value drivers. The evaluation metrics is mainly based on expected cash flow and market comparisons.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341549427_Roberto_Moro_Visconti_-The_Valuation_of_e-Health_and_Telemedicine_Startups

Cash flow forecasting of debt-free startups

Startups are typically debt-free since they are unable to produce positive cash flows or to provide adequate asset-backed guarantees in the first years of their life. Raised capital is so represented by equity, and its monetary component is the cash reservoir that keeps the firm alive until it reaches a liquidity surplus. Cash flow forecasting is crucial to estimate the financial breakeven (runway cash flow), combining the EBITDA generated (or absorbed) by the startup with its change in net working capital and CAPEX. The unlevered features of the startup imply that its opportunity cost of capital is represented just by the cost of collecting equity. In accounting terms, the EBIT tends to coincide with the net result of the income statement (in the absence of debt service and taxes, due to a negative tax base), and the operating cash flow with the net cash flow. When the startup reaches maturity and financial breakeven, it can start raising debt, so increasing its financial leverage. This represents a mighty milestone that can be reached only by the firms that survive Darwinian selection, bypassing the “Death Valley” (that indicates a cash- and equity- burn out), and overcoming the “winter of capital”. Scalable volumes, albeit appealing, are insufficient to guarantee survival, unless backed by appropriate economic marginality and consequent liquidity generation. To the extent that startup valuation is often based on Discounted Cash Flows, the forecast of its liquidity is a pre-requisite for appraisal. The risk that the real liquidity may be different from the expected one needs to be fairly incorporated in the cost of capital used to discount the risky cash flows. Forwardlooking valuations should never underestimate the importance of liquidity, remembering that “cash is king” and that … all roads bring to cash. Wise valuations cool down irrational expectations, avoiding to back exuberance, and may deflate prices after pumped listing of promising startups.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340574298_Cash_flow_forecasting_of_debt-free_startups

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